I've been reading Martin Gurri's The Revolt of the Public (2018) and sent a review of the book to a group of friends on the Left and Right that I've been talking to and corresponding with (see below).
Gurri claims that with the advent of the internet and social media we've entered what he calls the Fifth Wave of information technology, which has revolutionized and democratized the public's access to information. As a result, both authoritarian and liberal democracies have become threatened, as the hierarchical, top-down flow of information has become disrupted and led to a crisis in authority. He uses as examples the Arab Spring in 2011, which deposed the government in Tunesia and Mubarak's three-decade rule in Egypt. He uses many other examples such as the indignados revolt in Spain, the Tea Party, Occupy Wall Street, and eventually Brexit and Trump. While the book was published in 2014, an addition, "Reconsiderations: Trump, Brexit, and Farewell to All That" was added in 2018. Gurri was a former CIA analyst and approaches this work from an analytic perspective with very little bias, critical of both Obama and Trump.
What I believe to be the main insight and take away from Gurri's book is that it offers a framework to understand our current situation. He favors neither the public, which is in revolt but hasn't been able to govern, or the status quo elite, still stuck in what he calls an industrial age mindset or paradigm and feeling threatened by the public's access to information. He uses the work of Mary Douglas and Aaron Wildavsky (Risk and Culture: An Essay of Technological and Environmental Dangers, 1985) as a model to describe these changes: The Center refers to a continuation of the status quo and its protection, while the Border refers to the public or networks, which are voluntary associations of equals. It's a theme that recurs throughout the book and sheds light on the current efforts of governments to censor the opposition.
Another thing I appreciate about Gurri is the distinction he makes between rhetoric and behavior. Trump basically exemplifies the over-the-top, combative rhetoric of the public/internet sphere, while his actual policies were typically Republican with the exception increased protectionism for American business and decreased interventionism in foreign policy (my opinion). He also sees the opposition response (Democratic media and NeverTrumper) to Trump as hysterical and over-the-top as well.
A question came up from one of the group about Gurri's thoughts about the future, I responded:
Gurri makes it clear that he's not a prognosticator or prophet; he's an analyst describing what he sees. But on our present course what he basically sees is no resolution to the elite vs. public dynamic: In his examples, the public usually has no theory or method of governance and the elite is weak, paralyzed, and feeling threatened. The details of course change somewhat from country to country with different cultures and traditions. He does caution about the threat of nihilism as demonstrated in the wanton destruction and killing in mass murders and the terrorist state of ISIS, with one possible solution being more “localism” as exemplified by Switzerland and the digitized government of Estonia, though the latter “lies beyond the reach of gargantuan-sized national bureaucracies.” Lastly, he calls for the need of a new elite selected by the public and characterized by integrity, honesty and humility with reduced distance between the government and the governed. This is his hope to restore the public’s faith in the democratic republican form of government. He ends the book in 2018 so the Mueller and Durham reports haven't been revealed, COVID hasn't happened, and the 2020 Election and Jan. 6th haven't occurred. Gurri like many others has been influenced by Nicholas Nassim Taleb so there remains the possibility (maybe inevitability) of another Black Swan event like 9/11 or the 2007-08 market crash.
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From the Publisher
Themes explored in Revolt of the Public
- The new path we'll need to take if we want to preserve democracy
- The impact of media, broader access to information via technology, and visual imagery on our democracy
- Why the public today holds a powerful force that can be used to shape our democracy
- How and why he saw major political events and movements coming, including Brexit, Arab Spring, and the 2016 election of Donald Trump
- the implications of these political events and movements on our democracy
An excerpt from Arnold Kling's foreword
I read the first edition of The Revolt of the Public in early January of 2016, after Virginia Postrel cited it in her column. Since then, it has been the book that I recommend whenever I am in a conversation that turns to the Trump phenomenon or the disturbing state of politics in general.
Because Martin Gurri saw it coming. When, without fanfare, he self-published the first edition as an e-book in June of 2014, he did not specifically name Donald Trump, or Brexit, or the oddball political figures and new fringe parties that have surged all over Europe. But he saw how the internet in general and social media in particular were transforming the political landscape.
About the author
Martin Gurri is a geopolitical analyst and student of new media and information effects. He spent many years working in the corner of CIA dedicated to the analysis of open media-from that privileged perch, he watched the global information landscape undergo a transformation so radical as to seem unprecedented in the history of our species. Wise heads noted that the change was bound to cascade down to all of society, very much including politics. So indeed it has: witness the 2016 presidential elections. After leaving government, Mr. Gurri focused his research on the motive forces powering the transformation. The child of this labor is The Revolt of the Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium, first published in electronic form in 2014 and now republished in 2018 with a chapter or reconsideration's. Kind reviewers claimed that the book had predicted the rise of Donald Trump. It did no such thing, but attentive readers would not have been surprised by the events of 2016.
About the publisher
Stripe Press publishes books about economic and technological advancement. Stripe partners with hundreds of thousands of the world’s most innovative businesses-organizations that will shape the world of tomorrow. These businesses are the result of many different inputs. Perhaps the most important ingredient is "ideas." Stripe Press highlights ideas that we think can be broadly useful. Some books contain entirely new material, some are collections of existing work re-imagined, and others are republications of previous works that have remained relevant over time or have renewed relevance today.
Other titles by Stripe Press:
- High Growth Handbook by Elad Gil
- The Dream Machine by M. Mitchell Waldrop
- Stubborn Attachments by Tyler Cowen
- An Elegant Puzzle by Will Larson
- Get Together by Bailey Richardson, Kevin Huynh, and Kai Elmer Sotto
- The Making of Prince of Persia by Jordan Mechner
- The Art of Doing Science and Engineering by Richard W. Hamming
- Working in Public by Nadia Eghbal
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Reviews with images
The cover is falling off.
I bought this and opened it up and found out the cover was falling off. Well crap happens sent it back to amazon which was fairly painless. Just got a replacement exact same problem. I think they may have a defective batch of books. I was looking forward to reading it guess that won't happen as I am sending this one in for a refund rather than an exchange this time.As far as how good of a read it is I couldn't tell you sorry.
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