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Fossil Future: Why Global Human Flourishing Requires More Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas--Not Less Hardcover – May 24, 2022

4.7 4.7 out of 5 stars 1,846 ratings

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The New York Times bestselling author of The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels draws on the latest data and new insights to challenge everything you thought you knew about the future of energy

For over a decade, philosopher and energy expert Alex Epstein has predicted that any negative impacts of fossil fuel use on our climate will be outweighed by the unique benefits of fossil fuels to human flourishing--including their unrivaled ability to provide low-cost, reliable energy to billions of people around the world, especially the world’s poorest people.

And contrary to what we hear from media “experts” about today’s “renewable revolution” and “climate emergency,” reality has proven Epstein right:

  • Fact: Fossil fuels are still the dominant source of energy around the world, and growing fast—while much-hyped renewables are causing skyrocketing electricity prices and increased blackouts.
  • Fact: Fossil-fueled development has brought global poverty to an all-time low.
  • Fact: While fossil fuels have contributed to the 1 degree of warming in the last 170 years, climate-related deaths are at all-time lows thanks to fossil-fueled development.

What does the future hold? In
Fossil Future, Epstein, applying his distinctive “human flourishing framework” to the latest evidence, comes to the shocking conclusion that the benefits of fossil fuels will continue to far outweigh their side effects—including climate impacts—for generations to come. The path to global human flourishing, Epstein argues, is a combination of using more fossil fuels, getting better at “climate mastery,” and establishing “energy freedom” policies that allow nuclear and other truly promising alternatives to reach their full long-term potential.

Today’s pervasive claims of imminent climate catastrophe and imminent renewable energy dominance, Epstein shows, are based on what he calls the “anti-impact framework”—a set of faulty methods, false assumptions, and anti-human values that have caused the media’s designated experts to make wildly wrong predictions about fossil fuels, climate, and renewables for the last fifty years. Deeply researched and wide-ranging, this book will cause you to rethink everything you thought you knew about the future of our energy use, our environment, and our climate.
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Editorial Reviews

About the Author

Alex Epstein is an energy expert and founder of the Center for Industrial Progress, which offers a positive, pro-human alternative to the green movement. His New York Times bestselling book, The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels, has been widely praised as the most persuasive argument ever made for our continuing use of fossil fuels, winning Epstein the “Most Original Thinker of 2014” award from The McLaughlin Group.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Portfolio (May 24, 2022)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 480 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0593420411
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0593420416
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 2.31 pounds
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.3 x 1.47 x 9.26 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.7 4.7 out of 5 stars 1,846 ratings

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4.7 out of 5 stars
1,846 global ratings

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Customers say

Customers find the book well-researched and logical, with detailed observations and little-publicized facts. They describe it as brilliant, honest, and accurate. Readers praise the writing quality as clear and objective. The book provides a balanced take on fossil fuel use, providing a cost-effective and reliable energy source. Many customers appreciate the author's work and consider it excellent.

AI-generated from the text of customer reviews

170 customers mention "Research quality"163 positive7 negative

Customers find the book well-researched and logical. They appreciate its identification of the underlying ideas and issues involved, as well as detailed observations and little-publicized facts. The author explains in a calm, reasoned manner how the book provides an excellent framework for debate on these issues, with a balanced take on the issue. It provides intellectual ammunition to pro-humans who wish to defend industrial civilization, with unassailable data and evidence in support.

"...4. Fossils fuels are abundant in nature: plentiful, cheap, and reliable when production and transportation are not opposed by government regulations...." Read more

"...work, “Fossil Future,” is exhaustively researched and replete with unassailable data and evidence in support of what must be by necessity our..." Read more

"...This book has a section on climate change but does not make a detailed case about it – that is left to other such as Steven Koonin in his book “..." Read more

"The book is great. It was well organized and presented with facts from both sides of the aisle. I do believe in fossil fuels before this book...." Read more

72 customers mention "Readability"69 positive3 negative

Customers find the book easy to read and engaging. They appreciate the author's thorough, clear, and compelling case for human flourishing. The book is considered one of the most important books they have read in a while.

"...I consider this book to be, by far, the best—most honest, most accurate-- statement of the fossil fuel issue written so far...." Read more

"...For the past 200 years, they have freed up immense amounts of time previously devoted to basic manual labor to eke out a mere sustenance existence..." Read more

"...the real facts about energy production, this book is definitely worth the read if you want to be really informed on the issue." Read more

"The book is great. It was well organized and presented with facts from both sides of the aisle. I do believe in fossil fuels before this book...." Read more

41 customers mention "Writing quality"35 positive6 negative

Customers find the book's writing clear and well-presented. They appreciate the author's objective approach to addressing both sides of the issue. The book is described as readable, intelligent, and thought-provoking.

"...I read it in about 10 days. it’s well-written and the author is careful to avoid the inevitable that he is a climate “denier”...." Read more

"...Alex does this in a clear and concise manner and gives one optimism for a glorious future of human flourishing for all humans that are free to..." Read more

"...around climate change, and the unvarnished truth, shared boldly and clearly, are driving out lies...." Read more

"Fossil Future is a brilliantly thought out and reasoned book. The ideas Alex presents transcend the FF discussion...." Read more

23 customers mention "Fuel use"19 positive4 negative

Customers find the book a balanced and honest look at fossil fuel use. They say it presents the facts, pros, and cons of using them. The book is described as a brilliant antidote to the assault on fossil fuels. Readers mention that CO2 is essential for life and plants, and it's food for plants and our food sources.

"...4. Fossils fuels are abundant in nature: plentiful, cheap, and reliable when production and transportation are not opposed by government regulations...." Read more

"...These effects are due to fossil fuels’ abundance, naturally-stored energy density, cost efficiency, and reliability...." Read more

"...flourishing, and this book makes the not often heard case that fossil fuel expansion (as well as nuclear) is the way to do that." Read more

"...Fossil fuels till the soil, plants the seed, waters the crop, and reaps the harvest...." Read more

22 customers mention "Cost effectiveness"18 positive4 negative

Customers appreciate the cost-effectiveness of fossil fuels. They say the world needs affordable, reliable, and plentiful power to promote health and provide electricity for the grid.

"...Wind and solar are not reliable. They can, and should, provide electricity for the grid, but probably don’t constitute the sole answer to power..." Read more

"...4. Fossils fuels are abundant in nature: plentiful, cheap, and reliable when production and transportation are not opposed by government regulations...." Read more

"...Epstein does a good job of breaking down the elements of modern electricity cost effectiveness - baseline, load-following (intermediate), peaking..." Read more

"...and abundant energy will have without an alternate source that is also cheap, reliable, and abundant? *..." Read more

7 customers mention "Author"7 positive0 negative

Customers praise the author's work. They say the book is excellent and well-written.

"...Alex does an amazing job of describing what fossil fuels actually mean for humanity...." Read more

"...Excellent work by Alex Weinstein." Read more

"...Marvelously written and by one smart hombre. Thanks Alex!" Read more

"This is an excellent work that really makes one think about the TOTAL implications of attempting to move away from fossil fuels and how impossible..." Read more

13 customers mention "Reliability"9 positive4 negative

Customers have mixed opinions about the book's reliability. Some find it cost-effective with excellent material and superior logic and presentation. Others say it is unreliable, intermittent, expensive, and incapable of maintaining or advancing their knowledge.

"...Epstein favors two: waterpower from dams and nuclear. Both are safe, dependable, non-polluting and do not take up much land or harm birds and animals..." Read more

"...and the machines they run have created unprecedented prosperity, longevity, diminishing poverty, environmental protections, and uncountable other..." Read more

"The world needs cheap, reliable, plentiful power - energy to promote health, longevity and wealth for ourselves and our children using coal, gas,..." Read more

"This book helped me really understand just how important cheap, reliable, and abundant energy is for modern civilization to exist...." Read more

10 customers mention "Repetition"3 positive7 negative

Customers have different views on the book's repetition. Some find it compelling and a perfect narrative for preachers, while others feel it is repetitive and wordy.

"...The book takes a while to read and It repeats itself at times, but it makes a cogent argument...." Read more

"...This unnecessary repetition is prevalent throughout the book and ads unnecessary volume to his work...." Read more

"...Epstein explains in a calm, reasoned, and compelling manner how humankind has reduced climate-related deaths by 98% in the last 100 years and that..." Read more

"...Fuels" it's little bit better than this book because this book is a bit repetitive with some of the information you got from the first book...." Read more

An excellent starting point for debate about humanity's use of fossil fuels
5 out of 5 stars
An excellent starting point for debate about humanity's use of fossil fuels
What are the true benefits and true costs of humanity's use of fossil fuels? This book is a splendid framework for debate on these issues.Alex Epstein lays out a case that the true benefits are enormous and the true costs are manageable, sometimes to the point of only mild impacts.I don't have the expertise to pass definitive judgment on Epstein's claims but what I'll call the enormous true benefits side of the case seems very strong and straightforward.What I'll call the manageable true costs side of the case also seems rather strong to me, but I would frankly urge readers to buy this book to engage with Epstein's argumentation, especially on the issue of the possible cost frequently known as Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming ("CAGW"). (Epstein doesn't use this particular phrase/acronym but to me it's a fairly widespread term of convenience to describe what folks usually really mean when they talk about "global warming" or "climate change".)CAGW may be caused by humans putting too much CO2 into the atmosphere, thereby triggering harmful greenhouse effects. Of course natural climate change, of which global warming seems to be a current trend, is always in play, but the whole point of this discussion is that we are directing our collective attention to the climate change that we may be causing -- anthropogenic -- and which may be very harmful -- catastrophic -- to ourselves and the planet.In order to start the ball rolling on this engagement with Epstein's thinking, let me lay out some of his main points about the greenhouse effects from chapter 9, "Rising CO2 Levels: The Full Context".Epstein proposes that there are two possible types of greenhouse effects: first, a well-documented & mild greenhouse effect due solely to increases in CO2; and second, a speculative, "significantly amplified" greenhouse effect that would be caused by the impact of increased CO2 in turn causing a massive increase in production of water vapor (which is another greenhouse gas). I'll call the first type the direct greenhouse effect and the second type the significantly amplified greenhouse effect. The significantly amplified effect includes the direct effect as a pre-condition.Epstein proposes four points squarely relating to the direct greenhouse effect, that there are "four basic truths about the history of climate" that lead him to conclude we are not headed for a CAGW disaster."1. The global climate system is near historic lows in CO2 and temperature. 2. We have no near-term mechanism of reaching even one fourth the historical high of CO2. 3. Life on Earth thrived at far higher CO2 levels and temperatures in the past. 4. Planetary warming is concentrated in colder parts of the Earth -- it is not truly global."Further to these points is the "unanimous consent in mainstream climate science" that the relationship of increasing CO2 to increasing the direct greenhouse effect is a "diminishing, logarithmic effect", such that the greenhouse effect "from CO2 by itself translates into about 1o C every time the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere doubles." The attached graph may help illustrate this proposed effect.So Epstein writes that the first type of greenhouse effect -- the CO2 greenhouse effect -- is "a diminishing effect that on its own would not lead us to expect concerning warming in the future."Concerning the second type of greenhouse effect, he continues, "Claims that warming will be far more rapid than the [direct] greenhouse effect suggests are based on a significantly amplified greenhouse effect."And more: "The main mechanism posited is that the greenhouse effect of CO2 in the atmosphere will greatly amplify water vapor creation in the atmosphere, which could cause much more warming than the CO2 acting alone would. This kind of reinforcing interaction is called a positive feedback loop."But: "There are three crucial things to recognize about the positive feedback loops that supposedly contribute to a significantly amplified greenhouse effect: (1) they are limited by the diminishing nature of the [direct] greenhouse effect, (2) even extreme projections of warming would be masterable, and (3) the extreme projections are highly speculative and unlikely to come true."I hope that this small sample of Epstein's thinking -- as clumsily rephrased by me -- will prompt you to get this book and study it. The stakes are enormous and the more eyes we have on these issues the better.
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Top reviews from the United States

  • Reviewed in the United States on September 4, 2022
    I have the hardback which is 430 pages not including notes and intro. I read it in about 10 days. it’s well-written and the author is careful to avoid the inevitable that he is a climate “denier”. He recognizers that what he calls the “mainstream knowledge system” will be very protective of the current orthodoxy initially called “global warming” and then “climate change”, which is a more flexible terminology.

    His basic argument is the the current “climate change” orthodoxy (orthodoxy is my word, not his} completely ignores the benefits of fossil fuels, which benefits are cost-effective and essential to human flourishing. Instead, the current knowledge system (orthodoxy, I would say) catastrophizes fossil fuels side effects, which do exist. The current knowledge system distorts research on fossil fuels, promotes only “experts” who support these distortions, and refuses to consider any benefits of fossil fuels. He cites specific examples of these distortions.

    The author argues that them knowledge system promotes a “delicate nuturer’ view of the environment with an “anti-impact” view of humans effect on the environment. I came to understand this to simply mean that the mainstream knowledge system views any human impact on the environment as undesirable. Human existence, let alone flourishing, is anathema to the mainstream knowledge system.

    One example on page 373 of the book involves the argument by Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren opposing “plans for spreading industrial agriculture due to their use of fossil fuels.” Messrs. ehrlich and Holdren advocated “much greater use of human labor and relatively less dependence on heavy machinery and manufactured fertilizers and pesticides.” An unempowered life of agricultural drudgery, according to Messrs. Ehrlich and hOldren, doers less environmental damage. As Mr. Epstein notes: “Clearly they were not talking about the human environment, which is barely livable when farmers engage in manual labor agriculture. My family has some experience with this. My father grew up on a farm outside of Waco, Texas, in the 1920s and 1930s. In the 1950s and early 1960s, when I was a boy or early teenager, we would visit my paternal grandfather, who along with other members of the family lived in a wooden house with about 3 rooms. Water came from a cistern outside the house, the toilet was an outhouse, there was no air conditioning and heat was provided by a wood-burning pot bellied stove. Food was cooked in a wood-burning stove. There was a barn and a chicken coop and many other similar houses occupied by farm families nearby. By the late 1950s and 1960s electricity was coming to these small farms. Running water and sanitary sewer was a distant dream. I go to this area for an annual reunion and these little farm houses are gone. My cousins and all of their friends moved to Dallas, Houston, Waco, and other locales with the benefits provided by fossil fuels aa soon as they could. Since Messrs. Ehrlich and Holdren and other fellow-traveling ideologues idealize this existence so much perhaps they could be persuaded to adopt this lifestyle.

    The book also looks at the opportunity to master climate challenges through the use of the tools enabled by fossil fuels. There are reports of wildfires, droughts, and floods which sometimes create great hardship for humans. This cannot be disputed. The book looks at the statistics on losses from environmental disasters now and in the past, with losses declining with the expansion of the use of fossil fuels. You can go through the book, look at the citations and do your own research if you wish, but I would discourage simply the accepting the current orthodoxy and being dismissive of the book’s claims. Many of the wildfires in California now are due to poor “green” governmental policies. California has just now passed a law that will make it illegal to sell a gas-powered vehicle by 2035. Unfortunately, their “green” electric grid is also undergoing stress and has banned charging of electric vehicles.

    The war on fossil fuels has also included a war on the use of nuclear reactors. I read recently that Japan, notwithstanding Fukushima, is looking at nuclear power to provide reliable electricity for the Japanese. Germany,, and Europe generally, is beginning to look at nuclear and coal for reliable electricity. China has built many new coal power plants to provide power to its people. Keep in mind that political elites first and primary goal is to remain in power and if too many people are freezing or have no job because there is no power, the goal of remaining in power could be threatened. Wind and solar are not reliable. They can, and should, provide electricity for the grid, but probably don’t constitute the sole answer to power needs.

    On page 127, the author looks at the miracle of being able to travel by private jet. Al Gore gets a mention in several places in the book. I encountered one pilot who had flown Mr. Gore and 3-4 associates from Nashville, Tennessee, to Central dna South America and then back to Nashville. I expect that created a lot of CO2 for very few people. This flight was well after Mr. Gore became Mr. Global Warming. It simply is one example of where elites dictate rules for others that they themselves don’t wish to follow. I’m sure Mr. Gore is not the only person promoting global warming/climate change who believes and acts as if these dictates apply to the little people, which includes the author of this book, the readers of the book and anyone else not within the elite.

    The book takes a while to read and It repeats itself at times, but it makes a cogent argument. My one criticism is that he never engages the reason “why” the current knowledge system takes this approach. I think it is because the current elites think that there are simply too many people on the earth and the herd needs substantial thinning. Ergo,, the book’s argument for “human flourishing” is not what’s is desired.

    If the topic interests you, I recommend the book strongly.
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  • Reviewed in the United States on May 24, 2022
    I am a scientist (psychology), so I know how science works even though I am not a climatologist. But for many decades I have read widely in many fields including the physical sciences. I have read about twenty books and scores of articles on climate issues. For many years I suspected that something seemed wrong. There were so many contradictions. Everyone seemed to report findings, using selected data, which supported their side but not findings that contradicted it. It seemed that a political agenda was constantly mixed in with a science agenda. Soon one view became dominant: that fossil fuels were destroying the earth, maybe even in the next ten years, and needed to be abandoned to prevent a world-wide catastrophe. People who disagreed with this could be harassed, mocked, and even risked job loss. Scientific findings could only be published in some journals if they came out with the “right” results. Organizations were pressured to sell their oil stocks. Reporters for many leading newspapers learned quickly that only certain types of articles were acceptable. Opposing oil became a moral crusade, a virtual dogma. Eminent catastrophizers included: Paul Erlich, Al Gore, James Hansen, Paul Krugman, Bill McKibben, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. There have been many distortions of scientific data. But since our Constitution says we have a right to freedom of speech, all critics of the anti-oil crusade could not be silenced. Some catastrophizers openly advocate being dishonest in order to further their agenda. Epstein refutes all the crtics. He presents a list of recommendation for evaluating climate claims
    Epstein’s book is a brilliant antidote to the assault on fossil fuels. Its theme is that fossil fuels are one of the greatest benefits to human civilization ever and that there is, for now, no viable substitute. Epstein covers all the relevant issues from every angle, so I will only give a brief summary here.
    1. The earth, absent the benefits of machines powered by fossil fuels and electrical energy created by fossil fuels is a very dangerous place, characterized by mass poverty, recurring starvation, death from the cold, poor medical care, poor sanitation, exhausting manual labor, bad water, inadequate shelter, devastating natural disasters, and low life expectancy.
    2. The nations that suffer the most today are those that lack such technology. Without fossil fuels, people who lack them will keep suffering because they will stay poor.
    3. Coal, oil, and gas are responsible for almost all the energy created today-- about 80%. Solar and wind provide only about 3%. Fossil fuels have allowed humanity, insofar it has advocated reason, to master nature (following the laws of nature and science) thus enabling the human race to multiply and thrive.
    4. Fossils fuels are abundant in nature: plentiful, cheap, and reliable when production and transportation are not opposed by government regulations. They supply on demand electricity.
    5. The championed substitutes for fossil fuels are: wind, solar and batteries. Epstein notes, as have others, the many problems with these sources. Windmills do not work without wind. Solar panels do not work without sunlight. Batteries are nowhere near cost-effective enough or efficient enough to store and provide sufficient energy when the wind isn’t blowing enough and the sun isn’t shining enough. So in practice, solar, wind, and batteries are not replacements for fossil-fueled grids, they are inefficient, cost-adding add-ons to fossil-fueled grids.
    6. Epstein calls the idea that all power would be created by wind, solar, and batteries to be divorced from reality, just from the aspect of cost alone.
    7. What about pollution? Epstein shows that it has been decreasing for decades thanks to technology. Further, he identifies the ways that side effects can be mitigated.
    8. What other alternatives are there for power? Epstein favors two: waterpower from dams and nuclear. Both are safe, dependable, non-polluting and do not take up much land or harm birds and animals. Unfortunately, both are roundly opposed by the public. He shows that biomass and geothermal are at least decades away from becoming even significant supplements to fossil fuels, let alone replacements.
    9. There is a long section on dealing with climate side effects including evidence that fossil fuels lead to fewer storm-related deaths, e.g., floods. Sea level rise today is radically less than in previous history (and can be coped with) and the danger has been greatly exaggerated as with the case of ocean acidification.
    10. The book ends with a call for freedom of production and a critique of companies, including oil companies, which have conceded the anti-fossil agenda.

    I consider this book to be, by far, the best—most honest, most accurate-- statement of the fossil fuel issue written so far. But each reader will have to decide what to believe by using their own rational judgment.
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Top reviews from other countries

  • Pierre Robert
    5.0 out of 5 stars The art of collaborative dialogue
    Reviewed in Canada on July 22, 2024
    Having trained extensively in philosophy, Epstein understands the collaborative value of dialogue, as opposed to the more confrontational forms of debate and discussion. (Let’s not forget that the origin of the word “discussion” is “break” or “shake violently”.) The last chapter is a masterclass in the art of “reframing” the climate issue around the more universal goal of human flourishing. The last chapter also introduces the concept of “arguing to 100”. An important book.
  • Julian Salazar Velásquez
    5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent book that clearly explains the truth about the benefits of fossil fuels
    Reviewed in Mexico on July 20, 2022
    Excellent book that clearly explains the truth about the benefits of fossil fuels to humanity and the dangers of adopting measures to ban them, which would cause a disaster in civilization
  • Jörn S.
    5.0 out of 5 stars Refined new perspektive
    Reviewed in Germany on May 5, 2024
    Regards the climate change and the actions which conclude from it from a realistic and pragmatic perspective.
  • Madhu Jay
    5.0 out of 5 stars Holistic
    Reviewed in India on March 26, 2023
    The virtues Greta Thunberg personifies have been reduced to ashes by Alex. Gotta buy oil & gas⛽🛢️and coal stocks tomorrow.
  • gompie
    5.0 out of 5 stars Greenies must-read
    Reviewed in Sweden on August 6, 2022
    Probably the greenies won't, but you'll get insight into why its nessesary to not punch yourself in the face preparing for a fight. Limmiting fosil fuel and other suddenly unpopular actual solutions to get the most out of life/work/production and human flourising will be one of the most horrible mistakes in our lifetimes and the ones that follow us up. This book will bring you up to speed with what's going on around us and brings sanity to the conversation about energy and why humans need energy to maintain a peaceful society.