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Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future Kindle Edition
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Winner of Best Business Book of the Year awards from the Financial Times and from Forbes
"Lucid, comprehensive, and unafraid . . . ;an indispensable contribution to a long-running argument." -- Los Angeles Times
What are the jobs of the future? How many will there be? And who will have them? As technology continues to accelerate and machines begin taking care of themselves, fewer people will be necessary. Artificial intelligence is already well on its way to making "good jobs" obsolete: many paralegals, journalists, office workers, and even computer programmers are poised to be replaced by robots and smart software. As progress continues, blue and white collar jobs alike will evaporate, squeezing working -- and middle-class families ever further. At the same time, households are under assault from exploding costs, especially from the two major industries-education and health care-that, so far, have not been transformed by information technology. The result could well be massive unemployment and inequality as well as the implosion of the consumer economy itself.
The past solutions to technological disruption, especially more training and education, aren't going to work. We must decide, now, whether the future will see broad-based prosperity or catastrophic levels of inequality and economic insecurity. Rise of the Robots is essential reading to understand what accelerating technology means for our economic prospects-not to mention those of our children-as well as for society as a whole.
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherBasic Books
- Publication dateMay 5, 2015
- File size2581 KB
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Editorial Reviews
Review
ZDNet
An alarming new book.”
Esquire
A thorough look at how far machines have come”
Washington Post, Innovations blog
Ford tells great stories, both about innovation in the last 50 years and about the potential impacts of widespread automation of work in the future Rise of the Robots is a competent, approachable, and well-written synthesis of information across many area, and provides a valuable, coherent picture of automation's socio-economic interactions.”
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine
Ford offers ideas on changes in social policies, including guaranteed income, to keep our economy humming and prepare ourselves for a more automated future.”
Booklist
Whether you agree or not with the policy prescriptions put forward by [Martin Ford's Rise of the Robots and Anne-Marie Slaughter's Unfinished Business] these two well-written books, and quite a few will likely disagree, they are important reads for those wishing to better understand and influence the future.”
Bloomberg Business, Mohamed El-Erian
Few captured the mood as well as Martin Ford in The Rise of the Robots, the winner of the FT and McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award, which painted a bleak picture of the upheavals that would come as ever-greater numbers of even highly skilled workers were displaced by machines.”
Financial Times
[A] breathtaking new book on modern economics.”
Forbes.com
Lucid, comprehensive and unafraid to grapple fairly with those who dispute Ford's basic thesis, Rise of the Robots is an indispensable contribution to a long-running argument.”
Los Angeles Times
If The Second Machine Age was last year's tech-economy title of choice, this book may be 2015's equivalent.”
Financial Times, Summer books 2015, Business, Andrew Hill
It's not easy to accept, but it's true. Education and hard work will no longer guarantee success for huge numbers of people as technology advances. The time for denial is over. Now it's time to consider solutions and there are very few proposals on the table. Rise of the Robots presents one idea, the basic income model, with clarity and force. No one who cares about the future of human dignity can afford to skip this book.”
Jaron Lanier, author of You Are Not a Gadget and Who Owns the Future?
Ever since the Luddites, pessimists have believed that technology would destroy jobs. So far they have been wrong. Martin Ford shows with great clarity why today's automated technology will be much more destructive of jobs than previous technological innovation. This is a book that everyone concerned with the future of work must read.”
Lord Robert Skidelsky, Emeritus Professor of Political Economy at the University of Warwick, co-author of How Much Is Enough?: Money and the Good Life and author of the three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes
[Ford's] a careful and thoughtful writer who relies on ample evidence, clear reasoning, and lucid economic analysis. In other words, it's entirely possible that he's right.”
Daily Beast
Rise of the Robots is an excellent book. Fair-minded, balanced, well-researched, and fully thought through.”
Inside Higher Ed, Learn blog
Surveying all the fields now being affected by automation, Ford makes a compelling case that this is an historic disruptiona fundamental shift from most tasks being performed by humans to one where most tasks are done by machines.”
Fast Company
Well written with interesting stories about both business and technology.”
Wired/Dot Physics
Martin Ford has thrust himself into the center of the debate over AI, big data, and the future of the economy with a shrewd look at the forces shaping our lives and work. As an entrepreneur pioneering many of the trends he uncovers, he speaks with special credibility, insight, and verve. Business people, policy makers, and professionals of all sorts should read this book right awaybefore the 'bots steal their jobs. Ford gives us a roadmap to the future.”
Kenneth Cukier, Data Editor for the Economist and co-author of Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think
If the robots are coming for my job (too), then Martin Ford is the person I want on my side, not to fend them off but to construct a better world where we can allhumans and our machineslive more prosperously together. Rise of the Robots goes far beyond the usual fear-mongering punditry to suggest an action plan for a better future.”
Cathy N. Davidson, Distinguished Professor and Director, The Futures Initiative, The Graduate Center, CUNY and author of Now You See It: How the Brain Science of Attention Will Transform the Way We Live, Work, and Learn
A careful and courageous examination of automation and its possible impact on society.”
Kirkus Reviews
In Rise of the Robots, Ford coolly and clearly considers what work is under threat from automation.”
New Scientist
Makes clear the need to come to grips with ever more rapidly advancing technology and its effects on how people make a living and how the economy functions.”
Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
Of all the moderns who have written on automation and rising joblessness, Martin Ford is the original. His Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future is due out this May.... Self-recommending.”
Marginal Revolution
Robots, and their like, are on the rise. Their impact will be an important question in the next decade and beyond. Martin Ford has been thinking in this area before most others, so this book deserves very careful consideration.”
Lawrence Summers, President Emeritus and Charles W. Eliot University Professor, Harvard University
Mr. Ford lucidly sets out myriad examples of how focused applications of versatile machines (coupled with human helpers where necessary) could displace or de-skill many jobs His answer to a sharp decline in employment is a guaranteed basic income, a safety net that he suggests would both cushion the effect on the newly unemployable and encourage entrepreneurship among those creative enough to make a new way for themselves. This is a drastic prescription for the ills of modern industrializationills whose severity and very existence are hotly contested. Rise of the Robots provides a compelling case that they are real, even if its more dire predictions are harder to accept.”
Wall Street Journal
Well-researched and disturbingly persuasive.”
Financial Times
[Rise of the Robots is]about as scary as the title suggests. It's not science fiction, but rather a vision (almost) of economic Armageddon.”
Frank Bruni, New York Times
As Martin Ford documents in Rise of the Robots, the job-eating maw of technology now threatens even the nimblest and most expensively educated...the human consequences of robotization are already upon us, and skillfully chronicled here."
New York Times Book Review
Winner of the 2015 FT & McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award
A New York Times Bestseller
Top Business Book of 2015 at Forbes
One of NBCNews.com 12 Notable Science and Technology Books of 2015
For nonfiction, I tip my hat to Martin Ford's Rise of the Robots, which is vacuuming up accolades and is recommended reading for IIF staff. Ford's analysis, in a somewhat crowded field of similar books, offers a sobering assessment of how technology (robotics, machine learning, AI, etc.) is reshaping labor markets, the composition of growth, and the distribution of income and wealth, and calls for enlightened political and policy leadership to address coming, accelerating disruptions and dislocations.”
Bloomberg Business, Timothy Adams
We are in an era of technological optimism but sociological pessimism. Martin Ford's Rise of the Robots captures why these shifts are related and what challenges this might pose to our conventional economic and social infrastructures.”
Bloomberg Business, Andy Haldane
About the Author
Product details
- ASIN : B00PWX7RPG
- Publisher : Basic Books (May 5, 2015)
- Publication date : May 5, 2015
- Language : English
- File size : 2581 KB
- Text-to-Speech : Enabled
- Screen Reader : Supported
- Enhanced typesetting : Enabled
- X-Ray : Enabled
- Word Wise : Enabled
- Print length : 354 pages
- Best Sellers Rank: #765,028 in Kindle Store (See Top 100 in Kindle Store)
- #82 in Labor Policy
- #339 in Robotics (Books)
- #578 in Robotics & Automation (Books)
- Customer Reviews:
About the author
Martin Ford is a prominent futurist, New York Times bestselling author, and leading expert on artificial intelligence and robotics and their potential impact on the job market, economy and society. His 2015 book, "Rise of the Robots:Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future" won the Financial Times and McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award and has been translated into more than 20 languages.
Ford speaks frequently to industry, academic and government audiences on the subject of technology and its implications for the future. His TED talk, given on the main stage at the 2017 TED Conference, has been viewed more than 2 million times. He has written about future technology and its implications for publications including The New York Times, Fortune, Forbes, The Atlantic, The Washington Post, Harvard Business Review, The Guardian and The Financial Times. He has also appeared on numerous radio and television shows, including NPR, CNBC, CNN, MSNBC and PBS.
Ford is the founder of a Silicon Valley-based software development firm and has over 25 years experience in the fields of computer design and software development. He holds a degree in computer engineering from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor and a graduate degree in business from the Anderson Graduate School of Management at the University of California, Los Angeles.
-- Twitter: @MFordFuture
-- Website/blog: http://mfordfuture.com/about/
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Learn more how customers reviews work on AmazonCustomers say
Customers find the book insightful and well-researched. They find it interesting and worth reading. The writing style is clear and accessible. Many consider it a good value for money, saying it's a solid book with great information everyone needs. Readers mention the pacing is timely and thought-provoking. However, opinions differ on the scariness level - some find it compelling and riveting, while others find it boring and repetitive.
AI-generated from the text of customer reviews
Customers find the book insightful and well-researched. They find the stories and examples on automation fascinating and frightening. The author integrates details of robotics and AI with economic impacts, making the book an important work that raises concerns about job loss.
"...Here’s the thing. Technology is amazing. It has saved countless lives and allowed most of the developed world to achieve an almost ideal standard of..." Read more
"...Although this is very well researched book and covers a lot of new ground, I find it lacks the punch of his first when it comes to challenging the..." Read more
"...His book is very persuasive in pointing out why the "buggy whip" argument will cease to remain persuasive...." Read more
"The first 3/4 of this book is a fascinating and frightening look at the problems created by automation replacing human labour...." Read more
Customers find the book engaging and insightful. They say it's well-crafted and worth reading. The transition into the readings is compelling, and some readers consider it a required read for CEOs, college professors, and elected officials.
"...In the overall, Rise of the Robots comes out at a very good time when the "The Second Machine Age" (Brynjolffson and McAfee) and the..." Read more
"...All told was definitely a good read, but it falls off a cliff later on in terms of readability." Read more
"Fascinating book!..." Read more
"...A good read! As for me ... I'm waiting for my "Citizen Dividend" & personal Robot!" Read more
Customers find the writing style clear and accessible. They appreciate the author's clear explanations and analogies that make concepts and links easy to understand.
"Well written. I am a futurist...." Read more
"...Good in that it is well written, easy to understand for readers with just a basic understanding of economics...." Read more
"...Rarely have I encountered one as oddly enjoyable as this one. Amiably well-written, amply documented, throwing down clear logic, and plausible..." Read more
"...The writing is clear and concise. The title is unfortunate. The book is not about the rise of robots...." Read more
Customers find the book a good value for money. They say it's a solid book with great information that everyone needs. The first part is well-developed and pins down the actual and future. Readers appreciate the economics parts. The arguments are cogent and well-thought-out, providing ample evidence.
"...Cheap and plentiful food. Widely available medical treatments. Comfortable and clean shelters and pastimes our ancestors could not have imagined...." Read more
"...important question to answer in a review is “is this a good investment of time and money for the reader?”..." Read more
"This is a well-crafted and thought of book, insightful and the result of careful research...." Read more
"...The book makes its point over and over and over again. The point is very strong. the "over and over again" is the book's great weakness." Read more
Customers find the book timely and well-researched. They say it's worth reading and a better use of time than listening to it. The sooner thoughtful, complementary policies are implemented, the sooner we can mitigate.
"...The Invisible Hand' is hardly benign though. Summing up This is a timely book, that raises many questons !..." Read more
"This is timely book...." Read more
"...the discussion of universal basic income was really interesting and very timely. Well worth reading...." Read more
"...The sooner we can implement thoughtful, complimentary policies, the sooner we can mitigate the negative impact automation can have on hundreds of..." Read more
Customers have mixed opinions about the book's pacing. Some find it compelling and realistic, with good analogies that make concepts easy to understand. Others find it boring, repetitive, and depressing.
"...And there's quite a bit of that. It renders the book boring and tiresome in my view...." Read more
"...Machines can also be genuinely artistically creative...." Read more
"A shocking and depressing book about the rise of artifiical intelligence and how it is replacing virtually every job that humans are currently doing..." Read more
"...Well researched, well-written, riveting and frankly a little scary...." Read more
Customers have different views on the book's scariness level. Some find it interesting and frightening, with a dystopian view of the future. Others describe it as insightful, scary, and prescriptive, with anecdotal fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
"The first 3/4 of this book is a fascinating and frightening look at the problems created by automation replacing human labour...." Read more
"Thought provoking and a little frightening...." Read more
"...Well researched, well-written, riveting and frankly a little scary...." Read more
"...Between the three a very realistic and scary look into what is going on in the world of employment and technology." Read more
Customers have different views on job creation. Some mention the realities and potential effects of technology replacing manual labor. Others say it's impossible to create jobs, with bleak prospects for lower-level jobs and underemployment for recent college graduates.
"...brings to the table the realities and inevitable rise of technology replacing manual labor force...." Read more
"...On the civilian end, things are bleak for lower-level jobs including the only job sectors with current growth, manufacturing and service industries...." Read more
"Good information about technology replacing workforce in many industries in the near future 10-15 years!..." Read more
"...Declining labor force participation rate; 4) Diminishing job creation, lengthening jobless recoveries, and soaring long-term..." Read more
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Top reviews from the United States
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- Reviewed in the United States on January 29, 2016We've said it before, and it never happened. We've said "but this time is different," and it really wasn't. But this time - I think we're all in trouble, and I'm not smart enough to figure out how to fix this problem. I’m always looking for warning signs to protect my flock. No one can think of everything, but a little imagination combined with a collective intelligence can help formulate very effective hypotheses. My vision of the future for our children is quite dark and dysfunctional, as every prediction of a future generation has been since predicting the future has been a thing. With each successive implementation of technology, societies in general require less hard work and physical labor to survive and prosper. And for the first time ever, humans may no longer be required to think and innovate. We already have trained machines to do that for us. The hair on the back of Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk’s necks is standing at attention at this premise.
Here’s the thing. Technology is amazing. It has saved countless lives and allowed most of the developed world to achieve an almost ideal standard of living. Cheap and plentiful food. Widely available medical treatments. Comfortable and clean shelters and pastimes our ancestors could not have imagined. The people who invent technological advances are brilliant, as are the shrinking groups of people who have benefited financially from those advances. And therein lies the problem. Calm down, my fellow Republicans. I am not advocating redistribution or a socialist movement. However, the fundamental flaw of technology is that eventually it displaces the roles of people.
In Rise of the Robots, author Martin Ford details what machine intelligence and robotics can accomplish, and implores employers, scholars, and policy makers alike to face the implications. The past solutions to technological disruption, especially more training and education to move displaced workers into new careers, aren’t going to work this time. There's nowhere to put them. We must decide, now, whether the future will see broad-based prosperity or catastrophic levels of inequality and economic insecurity. Rise of the Robots is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand what accelerating technology means for their own economic prospects—not to mention those of their children—as well as for society as a whole.
On the civilian end, things are bleak for lower-level jobs including the only job sectors with current growth, manufacturing and service industries. Self-driving cars are expected to roll out in or about 2018. Over a million people a year are killed in automobile accidents in the United States, with even more life-altering non-fatal injuries sustained annually. A large percentage of those accidents are human error. There is no doubt the roads would be safer, assuming anti-hacking technologies are improved substantially by then. I would guess that there are nearly four million, maybe more, Americans employed as bus, truck, delivery, taxi, Uber, and limousine drivers. When self-driving technologies mature in less than a decade, in our wonderful nation where shareholder equity is more important than social responsibility, what positions do you think your favorite large companies are going to cut first? We are already seeing semi-automated trash trucks in our neighborhood. The irony is that we'll have even more unemployed people as a result of all the lives saved by safer commuting.
A neighbor recently told me a tale about being romanced by automated bartenders on a cruise ship that poured and mixed perfect drinks. Apple, America’s darling (and richest) company is fighting to remove child labor from its outsourced manufacturing processes with even younger workers – that run on electricity. Hospitals are not immune – medicines are already distributed by automated delivery systems, and tests are read by doctors seven different time zones away. Chances are you’ve called a company recently and spoke with a computer rather than a person, perhaps to the completion of your task or the resolution of your problem.
And let’s look at he ultimate fall-back for underprivileged Americans – a successful twenty-year career in any branch of the United States Military. Recruiting centers tend to pop up in failing malls and shopping centers of socioeconomically disadvantaged areas, which became disadvantaged through the last rounds of societal change, labor outsourcing, or automation technologies. Now that Google and other companies are jockeying for position by purchasing or investing in companies that develop and manufacture robots and artificial intelligence (AI), what do you think will be the first application of this new technology? That’s right kids, drones and robots will replace pilots and soldiers sooner than you think. It’s already rolling out. You don’t have to pay robots, you don’t have to feed them, you won’t have to provide expensive medical and retirement plans for them, and no pine box, folded flag, or survivor benefits are necessary when a robot gets killed in action. CNN reported the cost of keeping one soldier in Afghanistan for a single year was close to one million dollars. Soon, our government will be able to purchase ten robots for that figure, and use them indefinitely, or disposably.
Running further with the AI thing, we cannot be far away from computers that are capable of building more efficient machines and writing better code faster than any human could. With 3D printing already a reality, in the grand scheme of the history of civilized society, we are merely hours away from the complete automation of everything.
So, the question of the day remains: What the hell are *we* going to do? And there’s the problem, fellow capitalists. If there are no jobs, what do you do with all the people? They all have to eat, they all require shelter, they all require medical care. But with no jobs, there’s no income. And if there’s no income, there can’t be any income taxes, so who’s going to pay the government? No worries — the whole country will simply go on unemployment. But with no tax revenues, how do you pay for those benefits? Tax the wealthy, right? Not. Politicians assume if you tax the wealthy, they’ll leave for another country with greener pastures. Many prominent American investors and companies have already set up shop in tax havens like Ireland, Switzerland, or Grand Cayman.
Are you beginning to see the conundrum? I’m not smart enough to figure this one out. What I do envision is an entirely new transformation of what we consider civilization may be required. Call it hybrid socialism, communism, whatever… I can’t fathom another alternative. Business-sympathetic advisers and reporters tell us not to worry, because another industry always evolves, saving the economy, and produces millions of new careers we can’t even imagine. I apologize, but I can’t see how that theory will apply this time, since we’re replacing people with automation. There will be very few things humans can do that robots won’t do better. Even the darkest cornerstones of human civilization, slavery and prostitution, may be simulated and automated by some future capitalist genius. By 2050, there ain’t gonna be jack for any of us to do, and there ain’t jack any of us can do about it.
In all seriousness, I have no idea how to advise my children in their future careers. All the genius plans I had now seem irrelevant and futile. My youngest is now 13, and his generation may eke by in the traditional sense of things. I told him he should build robots. But his kids will definitely be completely screwed. Ford's book and its insights are well thought-out, completely realistic, and more frightening than a horror movie. Read it and weep - Martin's next book might be written by a bot.
- Reviewed in the United States on August 9, 2015Expands and updates his basic theory that was explained in his first very interesting and game changer book "The Lights in the tunnel". I used that first book in my class discussions with MBA candidates and found it extremely provocative to entice them to think out of the box, resulting in very heated but enlightening very constructive debates. I am not sure if I will obtain the same result with Rise of the Robots. Although this is very well researched book and covers a lot of new ground, I find it lacks the punch of his first when it comes to challenging the linear thinking of the economic profession, particularly on policy proposal. The analogy of the river flow and destruction of jobs Ford used to illustrate his alternative taxation proposal on "The Lights in the tunnel" has been much improved in this work by the analogy of the market as a renewable resource to the depletion of a school of fish that must be renewed exogenously (i.e., replacing the purchasing power gone with the destruction of jobs). Connecting the tragedy of the commons to his argument is a plus in this book. In the overall, Rise of the Robots comes out at a very good time when the "The Second Machine Age" (Brynjolffson and McAfee) and the coordinated articles on Robotics appearing in the July/August 2015 issue of Foreign Affairs are finally concentrating the attention of the general public on the impact that Artificial Intelligence is having in society's mainstream economic activities.
- Reviewed in the United States on October 11, 2015I have taught Artificial Intelligence (AI) for 3 decades at a major university. Until about 10 years ago, whenever someone worried about the effect of intelligent software/hardware destroying future jobs, I would always give my "buggy whip" argument, which goes like this:
"When the automobile was invented it DID destroy many jobs. Makers of buggy whips and horse troughs were put out of business. But many more NEW jobs were created to replace those older jobs. Witness all the gas stations, auto mechanic shops, car factories, etc."
About 8 years ago I lost faith in the buggy whip argument. I realized that, as the technology of AI advanced, a point would be reached in which intelligent software and general-purpose robots could perform all tasks (both mental and physical) that are currently achievable only by highly educated humans. Once one intelligent robot exists with a high level of general intelligence, it can be mass produced. There have been many advances in AI in recent years (in neural networks, planning and learning systems). Machine learning systems can now learn a number of complex cognitive tasks simply by observing the past performance of human experts.
I have always been an admirer of the combination of modern capitalism and (relatively) free markets as the major drivers of wealth. However, modern capitalism (with its corporations, stock and dividends) is less than a few centuries old. There is no reason to believe that it must last forever. Its "reign" over older economic systems may well end abruptly in the near future.
At one time I toyed with writing a book about my concerns regarding intelligent automation and its future effect on political and economic systems but Martin Ford has a done a 100-times better job that I could have ever done. His book is very persuasive in pointing out why the "buggy whip" argument will cease to remain persuasive.
I only have two complaints about Ford's book: (a) the title sounds a bit too much like a title for a pulp-fiction work and so I fear that not enough people will read it and (b) the first 75 pages consist of a standard summary of current economic facts and principles and so I fear that some readers may quit reading his book before they get to the really interesting parts, which in my opinion, start after page 75.
Top reviews from other countries
- Luis Alejandro Fernandez RuizReviewed in Mexico on October 28, 2024
5.0 out of 5 stars Amazing book
Even I read it in 2024, the book looks written not far away of the currently dynamics. I recommend it
-
FrançoisReviewed in France on November 29, 2017
5.0 out of 5 stars A must read
This book gives us a precise picture of the incoming threat of the rise of the robots. I recommand this book.
- Jaime Van CostelroyReviewed in Spain on January 28, 2017
5.0 out of 5 stars Best read
One of the best books I've ever read. Clear, concise and well documented. Makes you think out of the box
- Steven MorrisReviewed in Australia on February 14, 2018
5.0 out of 5 stars An interesting future
Starts off with a great view of how the world has progressed in regards to the Job Market in the last numerous years, and then follows up with how AI could impact this further. Martin has a fairly balanced approach to his thinking, and anything other people may consider to be outrageous is often backed by good sources.
This book outlines a very interesting future, one that seems heavily dependent on how governments will embrace AI in the near future, and how citizens will be provided for when they no longer have a job to wake up to every morning. It was a very easy read, I would really like to see another book in the next few years to summarize the progress that has been made in the short time since this book was published.
For further information from this author, I would recommend looking up The Investors Podcast - episode 158 where Martin is a guest and discusses AI and his book in further detail.
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堂垣外弘忠Reviewed in Japan on March 10, 2017
5.0 out of 5 stars 賃金があまり伸びなくなった原因が、組合等の弱体化のみにあるのではなく、自動化が主要因であると説く。
内容は、政治経済学の観点から、ロボットと自動化(広義の「自動化」)が職業環境(求人、賃金、職種)に与える影響について、過去現在未来にわたり詳細に検討されています。
1970年ころから、中間層を含めて、労働者の賃金があまり伸びなくなった原因が、組合等の弱体化のみにあるのではなく、自動化が主要因であると説く。これに対しては、政治経済学的観点から、対策を講じないと、需要の大幅な縮小により、資本主義経済が立ち行かなくなるというのである。
このような論議は、理科系知識人による現代経済の論評としてまことに興味深い。