We've said it before, and it never happened. We've said "but this time is different," and it really wasn't. But this time - I think we're all in trouble, and I'm not smart enough to figure out how to fix this problem. I’m always looking for warning signs to protect my flock. No one can think of everything, but a little imagination combined with a collective intelligence can help formulate very effective hypotheses. My vision of the future for our children is quite dark and dysfunctional, as every prediction of a future generation has been since predicting the future has been a thing. With each successive implementation of technology, societies in general require less hard work and physical labor to survive and prosper. And for the first time ever, humans may no longer be required to think and innovate. We already have trained machines to do that for us. The hair on the back of Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk’s necks is standing at attention at this premise.
Here’s the thing. Technology is amazing. It has saved countless lives and allowed most of the developed world to achieve an almost ideal standard of living. Cheap and plentiful food. Widely available medical treatments. Comfortable and clean shelters and pastimes our ancestors could not have imagined. The people who invent technological advances are brilliant, as are the shrinking groups of people who have benefited financially from those advances. And therein lies the problem. Calm down, my fellow Republicans. I am not advocating redistribution or a socialist movement. However, the fundamental flaw of technology is that eventually it displaces the roles of people.
In Rise of the Robots, author Martin Ford details what machine intelligence and robotics can accomplish, and implores employers, scholars, and policy makers alike to face the implications. The past solutions to technological disruption, especially more training and education to move displaced workers into new careers, aren’t going to work this time. There's nowhere to put them. We must decide, now, whether the future will see broad-based prosperity or catastrophic levels of inequality and economic insecurity. Rise of the Robots is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand what accelerating technology means for their own economic prospects—not to mention those of their children—as well as for society as a whole.
On the civilian end, things are bleak for lower-level jobs including the only job sectors with current growth, manufacturing and service industries. Self-driving cars are expected to roll out in or about 2018. Over a million people a year are killed in automobile accidents in the United States, with even more life-altering non-fatal injuries sustained annually. A large percentage of those accidents are human error. There is no doubt the roads would be safer, assuming anti-hacking technologies are improved substantially by then. I would guess that there are nearly four million, maybe more, Americans employed as bus, truck, delivery, taxi, Uber, and limousine drivers. When self-driving technologies mature in less than a decade, in our wonderful nation where shareholder equity is more important than social responsibility, what positions do you think your favorite large companies are going to cut first? We are already seeing semi-automated trash trucks in our neighborhood. The irony is that we'll have even more unemployed people as a result of all the lives saved by safer commuting.
A neighbor recently told me a tale about being romanced by automated bartenders on a cruise ship that poured and mixed perfect drinks. Apple, America’s darling (and richest) company is fighting to remove child labor from its outsourced manufacturing processes with even younger workers – that run on electricity. Hospitals are not immune – medicines are already distributed by automated delivery systems, and tests are read by doctors seven different time zones away. Chances are you’ve called a company recently and spoke with a computer rather than a person, perhaps to the completion of your task or the resolution of your problem.
And let’s look at he ultimate fall-back for underprivileged Americans – a successful twenty-year career in any branch of the United States Military. Recruiting centers tend to pop up in failing malls and shopping centers of socioeconomically disadvantaged areas, which became disadvantaged through the last rounds of societal change, labor outsourcing, or automation technologies. Now that Google and other companies are jockeying for position by purchasing or investing in companies that develop and manufacture robots and artificial intelligence (AI), what do you think will be the first application of this new technology? That’s right kids, drones and robots will replace pilots and soldiers sooner than you think. It’s already rolling out. You don’t have to pay robots, you don’t have to feed them, you won’t have to provide expensive medical and retirement plans for them, and no pine box, folded flag, or survivor benefits are necessary when a robot gets killed in action. CNN reported the cost of keeping one soldier in Afghanistan for a single year was close to one million dollars. Soon, our government will be able to purchase ten robots for that figure, and use them indefinitely, or disposably.
Running further with the AI thing, we cannot be far away from computers that are capable of building more efficient machines and writing better code faster than any human could. With 3D printing already a reality, in the grand scheme of the history of civilized society, we are merely hours away from the complete automation of everything.
So, the question of the day remains: What the hell are *we* going to do? And there’s the problem, fellow capitalists. If there are no jobs, what do you do with all the people? They all have to eat, they all require shelter, they all require medical care. But with no jobs, there’s no income. And if there’s no income, there can’t be any income taxes, so who’s going to pay the government? No worries — the whole country will simply go on unemployment. But with no tax revenues, how do you pay for those benefits? Tax the wealthy, right? Not. Politicians assume if you tax the wealthy, they’ll leave for another country with greener pastures. Many prominent American investors and companies have already set up shop in tax havens like Ireland, Switzerland, or Grand Cayman.
Are you beginning to see the conundrum? I’m not smart enough to figure this one out. What I do envision is an entirely new transformation of what we consider civilization may be required. Call it hybrid socialism, communism, whatever… I can’t fathom another alternative. Business-sympathetic advisers and reporters tell us not to worry, because another industry always evolves, saving the economy, and produces millions of new careers we can’t even imagine. I apologize, but I can’t see how that theory will apply this time, since we’re replacing people with automation. There will be very few things humans can do that robots won’t do better. Even the darkest cornerstones of human civilization, slavery and prostitution, may be simulated and automated by some future capitalist genius. By 2050, there ain’t gonna be jack for any of us to do, and there ain’t jack any of us can do about it.
In all seriousness, I have no idea how to advise my children in their future careers. All the genius plans I had now seem irrelevant and futile. My youngest is now 13, and his generation may eke by in the traditional sense of things. I told him he should build robots. But his kids will definitely be completely screwed. Ford's book and its insights are well thought-out, completely realistic, and more frightening than a horror movie. Read it and weep - Martin's next book might be written by a bot.
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Required Reading
The political and economical implications of automation are discussed in such a manner and style, that the book reads more like a sci-fi thriller than a book of economics. A real pleasure to read despite it leaving the reader with an almost defeatist view of our political landscape. Nonetheless, Rise of the Robots shows there's still time to act.
Top reviews from the United States
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- Reviewed in the United States on January 29, 2016
- Reviewed in the United States on August 9, 2015
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Top reviews from other countries
- Alex ReidReviewed in the United Kingdom on December 5, 2015
A must read if you are interested in your long term career prospects
- Bruce LentonReviewed in Canada on March 1, 2016
The Robot Is Here; Waiting for your Job!
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堂垣外弘忠Reviewed in Japan on March 10, 2017
賃金があまり伸びなくなった原因が、組合等の弱体化のみにあるのではなく、自動化が主要因であると説く。
